Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 8.537504e-05 0.000101 0.000119 0.000138 0.000160 0.000183 0.000209
2025-01-19 6.598201e-05 0.000087 0.000111 0.000140 0.000174 0.000211 0.000256
2025-01-26 5.173538e-05 0.000074 0.000101 0.000134 0.000175 0.000221 0.000278
2025-02-02 4.319813e-05 0.000067 0.000097 0.000135 0.000184 0.000240 0.000311
2025-02-09 3.626279e-05 0.000060 0.000092 0.000134 0.000189 0.000254 0.000336
2025-02-16 3.235124e-05 0.000058 0.000092 0.000139 0.000200 0.000275 0.000372
2025-02-23 2.826996e-05 0.000054 0.000089 0.000140 0.000208 0.000291 0.000400
2025-03-02 2.260539e-05 0.000047 0.000082 0.000135 0.000206 0.000296 0.000414
2025-03-09 1.856782e-05 0.000042 0.000078 0.000131 0.000206 0.000302 0.000431
2025-03-16 1.569795e-05 0.000038 0.000074 0.000131 0.000210 0.000313 0.000453
2025-03-23 1.367963e-05 0.000036 0.000073 0.000131 0.000216 0.000327 0.000478
2025-03-30 1.151982e-05 0.000033 0.000070 0.000130 0.000219 0.000336 0.000498
2025-04-06 8.797875e-06 0.000029 0.000065 0.000126 0.000218 0.000342 0.000516
2025-04-13 7.409182e-06 0.000027 0.000064 0.000128 0.000226 0.000360 0.000549
2025-04-20 5.364204e-06 0.000023 0.000058 0.000123 0.000223 0.000363 0.000561
2025-04-27 4.407375e-06 0.000021 0.000057 0.000124 0.000229 0.000378 0.000592
2025-05-04 3.425101e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000123 0.000233 0.000389 0.000616
2025-05-11 3.021801e-06 0.000019 0.000056 0.000127 0.000244 0.000412 0.000655
2025-05-18 2.462872e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000128 0.000251 0.000427 0.000686
2025-05-25 1.623833e-06 0.000015 0.000050 0.000123 0.000247 0.000428 0.000697
2025-06-01 1.092518e-06 0.000013 0.000047 0.000120 0.000246 0.000434 0.000713
2025-06-08 7.702843e-07 0.000012 0.000045 0.000119 0.000249 0.000444 0.000736
2025-06-15 5.705980e-07 0.000011 0.000044 0.000120 0.000255 0.000458 0.000765